A warm welcome from OnlineForex.com- the Online Forex Trading expert! We are all about the fundamentals here: it's our view that you need a clear understanding of all the trends going on in the markets before you start trading for the day, so that you can trade with the overall currency flow or at least know when you are trading against it. Remember to think about your time frame- are you trading hourly, daily, weekly or monthly forex trends? You get the picture. Take a view on the trend that matches your timeframe, while keeping an eye on the amount of volatility in the markets.Tuesday update … Greek election stalemate continues to worry markets.
A real sell-off day yesterday in assets and commodities helping the US Dollar make gains across the board. Greece & Spain in Europe and Chinese slow down fears dominate.
Headlines
- Greece… Talks continue but hopes of coalition government still look slim. Meanwhile a Greek EZ departure is now being openly discussed as a possibility.
- Bonds… EZ peripheral bonds sell-off while safe havens improve .
- Equities.. Europe falls 2% + and US 1% although European stocks bounce this morning on German GDP data
- Commodities ..Oil and Gold take a big hit Lows of $93.60 and $ 1560. A bounce this morning but technicals are negative.
- Australia.. RBA minutes show rate cut on falling growth and inflation.
- Italy.. Moody´s downgrades 26 Italian banks by varying degrees with negative watch.. More to come elsewhere in the EZ
- EZ GDP… German GDP lifts markets this morning 1st Qtr. GDP +0.5%, 1.7% YOY ( 0.1 & 0.8 exp) elsewhere as expected
- Forex… Dollar advanced and Euro sold off yesterday with EUR/USD down to 1.2815 and EUR/GBP 79,60. USD/JPY sits just under 80 but slipped close to EUR/JPY 102 yesterday. I think we can presume Swiss National banks was busy yesterday. Australian dollar recovers from lows but still below parity this morning and more weakness there I fee.l
It would be 3rd time lucky for me if we get a bounce in EUR/USD today. Its not that I want one its just overdue, but shows what negative sentiment there is for the Eurozone at the moment. Greece is dominating and despite far left Syriza´s Tsipras saying their aim is to keep Greece in the Eurozone , outside their departure is openly discussed. Economist Roger Bootle writing in the Daily telegraph considers it a done deal and that others may only follow once they see how Greece fares on the outside.
French president Hollande is set to meet Germany´s Merkel today. It would be too early to expect any kind of statement but it looks like Mrs Merkel will be shooting from the hip and refusing any changes to the fiscal pact. Adding growth measures will be fine but she insists on no new borrowing.
Its true to say forex and other markets are still pretty orderly whatever business is going through its not massive yet. Peripheral Eurozone countries though remain very very vulnerable as a constant drain from banks continues. Imbalances within the EZ central banking system must be increasing to mind boggling amounts and causing sleepless nights at the German Bundesbank.
This mornings currency and equity bounces are pretty ´dead cat` thus far and we will need something positive in EZ news to sustain or provoke more. Rallies in EUR/USD will be and should be sold.
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