Is this the beginning of the end for Euro zone.
The week was dominated by Greece and although off the lows the market voted with their feet as far as the Euro was concerned.
Interestingly there are some very distinguished economic commentators predicting the demise of the Euro zone. Their argument is pretty compelling to anyone who has always had their doubts about the Euro zone believing as I do that it is fundamentally floored.
The authorities are papering over the cracks and it appears that while they may buy some time the likelihood of Greece and others ( Portugal Spain and Ireland) being able to make creditable reductions in budget deficits over the coming years looks remote.
The real. truth is they should never have joined and in the case of the Greeks they should not have been allowed to.
Against a background of what looks likely to be pretty benign growth in Europe will these countries be prepared to embark on a long period of austerity.
Bailing out the banks was one thing but Sovereign problems is another ball game. Investors are right to be concerned .
As far as the currency market goes next week will probably be wait and see. While Euro dollar may test the low 1.34 level there could well be more consolidation ,as the market digests the information coming from the finance ministers meeting.
Much has been written about the excessive short Euro dollar position held by the IMM IInternational Money Market)- equivalent 5 Billion GBP.While this may spell warnings of a correction it will be of little consequence if there is a major reallocation of assets away from the Euro If the the big movers and shakers get their teeth into this then frankly we aint seen nothing yet.While any argument for a major move into dollars and to a degree Yen is not very compelling at all ,they may win by default.
The possibility of German and French tax payers footing any bailout bill may be tempting for the generation of politicians that have committed to the Euro but would cause rebellion from the public. Indeed a television poll in Germany showed 71% of German voters are against providing financial help for Greece and political pressure would likely refrain German prime minister Merkel from taking any further steps.
The lack of any real concrete measures this week showed that there is no consensus and certainly those outside the Euro zone but within the EEC will give a thumbs down to any financial assistance from their taxpayers.
Of course whatever is cobbled together may buy some time but that will be all.The jury will be out for some time ,however,this is looking more and more like the beginnings of a major sovereign debt crisis.

